September 21, 2008
A Professor and a Banker Bury Old Dogma on Markets
This article was reported by Peter Baker, Stephen Labaton and Eric Lipton and written by Mr. Baker.
WASHINGTON — For the last year, as the nation’s economy lurched from crisis to crisis, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, had been warning Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary, that the worsening situation might ultimately force a sweeping federal intervention.
A longtime student of the Great Depression, Mr. Bernanke was acutely
aware of what could happen without a decisive move. Finally, the moment
that called for action arrived late Wednesday. Less than 24 hours after
the Fed bailed out American International Group,
the giant insurer, it was clear the turmoil gripping Wall Street was
only growing worse and that ad hoc solutions were not working.
Talking into a speaker phone from his ornate office, Mr. Bernanke
told Mr. Paulson that it was time to adopt a comprehensive strategy
that Congress would have to approve. Mr. Paulson understood. Reluctant
in recent days to send Congress a plan that lawmakers had warned had
little chance of quick passage, he had worried that a rejection would
only further shock the markets. But during two conference calls
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, he agreed that they had no choice.
“It just happened dramatically,” Mr. Paulson said in an interview on
Friday. “There was only one way that we could reassure the markets and
deal with a very significant and broad-based freezing of the credit
market. There was no political calculus. It was overwhelmingly obvious.”
Just like that, Mr. Bernanke, the reserved former Ivy League
professor, and Mr. Paulson, the hard-charging former Wall Street deal
maker, launched what would be the government’s largest economic rescue
operation in modern times, one that rivals the Iraq war in cost and at
the same time may redefine Washington’s role in the marketplace for
years.
The plan to buy $700 billion in troubled assets with taxpayer money
was shaped by two men who did not know each other until two years ago
and did not travel in the same circles, but now find themselves brought
together by history. If Mr. Bernanke is the intellectual force and Mr.
Paulson the action man of this unlikely tandem, they have managed to
create a nearly seamless partnership as they rush to stop the financial
upheaval and keep the economy afloat.
Befitting their roles and personalities, Mr. Paulson has become the
public face of their team — he plans to appear on four Sunday talk
shows — while the less visible Mr. Bernanke provides the historical
underpinnings for their strategy.
Along the way, they have cast aside the administration’s long-held
views about regulation and government involvement in private business,
even reversing decisions over the space of 24 hours and justifying them
as practical solutions to dire threats.
“There are no atheists in foxholes and no ideologues in financial
crises,” Mr. Bernanke told colleagues last week, according to one
meeting participant.
The improvisational nature of their effort has turned President Bush
and Congressional Democrats into virtual bystanders, sometimes
uncertain about what comes next and left to wonder about the new power
dynamics in the capital. Seemingly every time lawmakers tried to get a
handle on what was happening and what role they might play with
elections around the corner, Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke would show up
again on Capitol Hill for another evening meeting with another surprise
development.
The two men have been working early and working late, tracking Asian
markets and fielding calls from their European counterparts, then
reconnecting with each other by phone eight or nine times a day,
talking so often that they speak in shorthand. Mr. Paulson has powered
through the long days with a steady infusion of Diet Coke. Asked twice
to testify by the Senate last week, he begged off.
“He told me he had like four hours of sleep,” said Senator Christopher J. Dodd,
Democrat of Connecticut and chairman of the Banking Committee. But
there were limits to Mr. Dodd’s sympathy. “The public wants to know
what’s going on,” he said he replied.
Mr. Bernanke (his drink: Diet Dr Pepper) has made a point of leaving
the office by midnight to get at least some rest, but friends say the
toll on him is clear as well. Alan S. Blinder,
a longtime friend and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve,
recalled seeing Mr. Bernanke at a conference last month in Jackson
Hole, Wyo. “He looked like he had the weight of the world on his
shoulders,” Mr. Blinder said.
And that was before last week.
Mr. Bernanke took office in February 2006 and Mr. Paulson five
months later, both Republicans and Bush appointees, yet arriving from
starkly different places. Mr. Bernanke, 54, had managed the academic
politics of the Princeton economics department, where he served as
chairman, by developing a conciliator’s style. Mr. Paulson, 62, rose to
the top of Goldman Sachs by pounding the phones, and the occasional table.
“Hank is just the most hyperactive, get-it-done kind of guy who’s
always trying to get the problem solved and move on. He’s impatient to
fix things,” said Allan B. Hubbard, a former national economic adviser
to Mr. Bush. “Ben is much more low-key. He’s very thoughtful. He’s an
incredible thinker, listens well, analyzes well and is not intimidated
by anyone. It’s probably a great pair.”
While Mr. Bernanke talks in lofty terms and Mr. Paulson speaks in
great bursts of Wall Street jock language, the new Washington odd
couple bonded in part over baseball. The Treasury secretary is a
Chicago Cubs fan and the Fed chairman is a Boston Red Sox fan who has
adopted the Washington Nationals and shares season tickets with the
White House chief of staff, Joshua B. Bolten.
But neither Mr. Paulson nor Mr. Bernanke has been deeply involved in
the political process before. As they try to navigate Washington
together, they have surrounded themselves respectively with advisers
drawn from Goldman and career professionals at the Fed.
Mr. Paulson initially declined to join the cabinet. He changed his
mind only after extensive lobbying by Mr. Bolten, a former Goldman
executive, and commitments by Mr. Bush to let him truly run economic
policy, unlike his predecessors. The Hammer, as Mr. Paulson has been
called since his days on the Dartmouth football squad, brought to
Washington his characteristic intensity.
“He is a hurricane. He is used to living in a turbulent world,” said
John H. Bryan Jr., a close friend and former chief executive of the Sara Lee Corporation. “He has lived in a world of deadlines, decisions and pressure-packed things.”
Mr. Paulson, a Christian Scientist, does not drink or smoke. Once,
at a cocktail party where he was giving a speech, recalled Andrew M.
Alper, a former Goldman colleague, Mr. Paulson accidentally took a gulp
from a glass of vodka, thinking it was water. His face turned bright
red and his eyes were watering for an hour. “He just kept going,” Mr.
Alper said. “It did not slow him down.”
Mr. Bernanke has a more obscure nickname, Helicopter
Ben, after a speech he gave in 2002 in which he talked about the Fed’s
“helicopter drops” of emergency money to keep the system liquid. For
Mr. Bernanke, the current crisis is the culmination of a lifetime of
figuring how the system works from a theoretical viewpoint.
Mr. Bernanke made clear long ago that he realized he might someday
be called on to act on his studies. Vincent R. Reinhart, a former Fed
official, said Mr. Bernanke’s research into Japan’s financial crisis in
the 1990s reinforced his view that the government had to be aggressive
in intervening during market crises.
And at a party he had in 2002 to honor the 90th birthday of Milton Friedman,
the famed economist, Mr. Bernanke, then a governor of the Federal
Reserve, brought up the mistakes the nation made in the face of the
Depression and promised not to repeat them. “We did it,” he said then.
“We won’t do it again.”
Mr. Paulson, in the interview Friday, said that Mr. Bernanke had
long warned that a moment might come like the one they saw last week.
“Going back a long time, maybe a year ago, Ben, as a world-class
economist, said to me, ‘When you look at the housing bubble and the
correction, if the price decline was significant enough,’ ” the only
solution might be a large-scale government intervention, Mr. Paulson
said. “He talked about what had happened when there had been other
situations historically.”
Mr. Paulson said he agreed but hoped it would not come to that. “I
knew he was right theoretically,” he said. “But I also had, and we both
did, some hope that, with all the liquidity out there from investors,
that after a certain decline that we would reach a bottom.”
He was also hearing as late as last Monday from senior Democratic and Republican lawmakers, including Steny H. Hoyer, the House majority leader, and Representative John A. Boehner
of Ohio, the House Republican leader, that there was no chance Congress
would adopt any legislation before it planned to leave town in
September. Even Representative Barney Frank,
a proponent of a greater role for the government in the market, said on
Monday that the issue would have to be resolved by the next president
and the new Congress next year.
By Tuesday, however, the troubles were only deepening. Lehman Brothers had declared bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch had agreed to be bought by Bank of America
and A.I.G. was on the verge of collapse. Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke
put together an $85 billion bailout of A.I.G. and presented it to Mr.
Bush.
But the two warned the president that it might not be enough to
stabilize the broader crisis. A senior administration official, who
spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations,
paraphrased their message to Mr. Bush this way: “There may still be
problems after this, and if there are, we’ll come back to you.”
They did, two days later, after plunging stock prices and frozen
credit markets made clear the case-by-case strategy was not working.
Mr. Paulson had been talking with Mr. Bush by telephone throughout
Wednesday and early Thursday. The decision to finally take a radical,
systemwide step came after an endless stream of conference calls
involving Fed, Treasury and Securities and Exchange Commission
officials, one participant recalled, when Mr. Bernanke said: “We have
got to go to Congress.” Mr. Paulson concurred.
On Thursday afternoon, the two men, along with Christopher Cox,
the S.E.C. chairman, went to the White House to explain their plan.
“The president said, ‘Let’s do it,’ ” an official said. “There was no
hesitation.”
Within hours, Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke were in the office of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,
briefing Congressional leaders on how bleak the situation was.
Lawmakers were shaken but offered tentative support. Torn by
conflicting imperatives to take action and to go home to campaign, they
seemed alternately grateful and resentful of the new power couple in
Washington. Some referred to “President Paulson” and others groused
about an unelected central bank chairman doling out hundreds of
billions of dollars.
Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke came under fire for being too aggressive and for not being aggressive enough. Senator Jim Bunning, Republican of Kentucky, said they were killing the free market. R. Glenn Hubbard, former chairman of Mr. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, said they should have acted sooner.
“The opportunity to have taken bold action would obviously have been
better had they done it months ago,” he said. “But better late than
never.”
In the end, what left so many lawmakers and economists frustrated
was the sense that no one had a better idea. So they waited for Mr.
Paulson and Mr. Bernanke to give them more details about what they
wanted to do.
David M. Herszenhorn contributed reporting from Washington, and Michael Barbaro and Eric Dash from New York.
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Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/business/21paulson.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin