'Thoughts'에 해당되는 글 46건

  1. 2009.07.07 An Urgency Felt by Venture Capitalists?
  2. 2009.07.07 What's in a Normal/General Investor's Mind?
  3. 2009.05.19 Law 1
It's been a rule of thumb over the years that venture capitalists need to make at least one big deal a year to run their business.

Keep that in your mind as you read this.

With the recession in the US, I have observed a clear change in trend of venture capital investors - at least among the companies I worked on and based on the news I've been reading.

- VCs have been pulling fund out of some of their investments.
- While known for giving chances to failures/under-performances, Silicon Vally VCs have been stringent. It does not mean that they have stopped funding all the so-called under-performing companies. But the (re)financing trend has been significantly reduced in the first half of 2009 compared to the first half of 2008.
- VCs seems to be holding a lot of cash. This probably is a result of 2 factors above, but also surprising given the current economic situations.

It's a general gossip and belief now that VCs will be very active this 2nd half of 2009 to make one deal to make profitable year utilizing their current portfolio. They will be very selective in their financing and it will be very concentrated to selected companies under their portfolio.

In the first half of 2008, only one Internet site went to public - Open Table. I was very surprised to see one, and not that of high profile. I've heard of them, but they were never under my radar. Maybe because they were not our client and I never had a chance to use their service to reserve a fancy dining place since I could just check on Yelp and make a call.

I do have a number of clients that are clearly pre-IPO, but it seems like they were advised by the board and underwiters to wait. Exactly what's going on, I do not know.

It will be interesting to see how VCs behave in the rest of 2009, and which of these VC-funded companies involved in large M&As and IPOs.

PS: There were a number of M&As in the first half of 2009, but companies located in Silicon Valley were not really invovled in large deals... So that has to wait, too.




Posted by 【洪】ILHONG
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We economists knew since beginning of the year or at the end of 2008 that the 2nd wave of foreclosures and economic shocks will be on or around July/August... no later than 2009 3Q.

Even we junior economists with only Master's degree were talking about it over our beer in next door pub that the US economy will experience shocks from:

1) Lagged influence of layoffs on consumption and mortgage payments
2) Credit card debts (mixed with consumption habits of an average Americans)
3) Speculations on commodities

and of course, the multiplied effects of all.

Last month, the chairman of Wells Fargo also admitted that he expects the US economy to hit the rock bottom in 2009 4Q in an informal private meeting (never appeared in public).

The more important thing is all the economists like us already knew this months and months ago,
so I have already minimized my losses in my 401K and actually have gained on my fund allocations.

But if I read news these days, I am surprised by innocence and how dumb a number of investors are to speculate on oil prices and go crazy on small day to day changes in economic indicators.

I didn't know anything about supply and demand until 4 years ago for god's sake, and these investors should have much more experience than I do and much more knowledge. But apparently their panic is not hard to notice on NYTimes and WSJ on my iPhone.

Even on the oil prices, it's a text book material to invest in commodities when the economy is in trough,
but the thing is we are clearly still going down until now as recent unemployment figures have shown.

Also, those 3 factors mentioned are somewhat textbook material already.

A common knowledge that even an infant investor knows despite lack of any technical knowledge is that markets always go through two peaks or equivalently two troughs. As the US economy is still in recession, and there has been only one trough, another trough is expected and even we junior economists already knew that the shock should hit the US economy on 2009 3Q, given how the credit card cycles, recent consumption, and labor statistics behave. It should be almost a common knowledge who has taken more than 3 economics courses in college, yet those investors are making just grave mistakes over and over again.

Recently, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch (now Bank of America) received accolades because their performances were improved because they focused on the basics of investment banking - as an underwriter and broker instead of all the crazy things they did in recent years. Accolades for going back to basics!!! Applauded!!!

But apparently there are still so many dumb crazy investors who do not know any basics (or clearly have forgotten) and keep on speculating and thus hurt the market in general, which could exacerbate the current economy.

Again, those dumb people are so useless and even harmful for good and/or smarter people. 
Posted by 【洪】ILHONG
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Law 1

Thoughts 2009. 5. 19. 19:13

There ain't nobody like "somebody."

Posted by 【洪】ILHONG
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